Jegamatics (Part I)

During the second world war in the 1940s, the British army realised that it needed to have a specialised unit whose job was to provide a scientific (factual and quantifiable) basis for allocating military resources (guns, bullets, food, shoes, uniform, etc) to the different commandants in different battle fields. This was essential to avoid waste, misallocation and under-supply of resources to the fighting soldiers. Historians generally agree that this decision to have a scientific basis for decision-making; was critical to the success of the British and Allied forces when hostilities with the Nazis reached its peak. This process of strategic allocation of resources later became known as operations research (OR) and is taught in many universities, and is applied in many sectors in virtually every serious country, with the exception of places like Nigeria.

This is why we in Nigeria plan to register 70 million voters within 2 weeks before we realise that we need an additional 4 weeks. That was why we plan for elections and then postpone them once, and then postpone them again; with excuses such as ‘ballot papers did not arrive on time’ – or that 'the political parties are not ready'. This is also why despite the history of violence in specific states of Nigeria, no one planned for the deployment of extra security for INEC staff, vulnerable youth corpers and other innocent citizens, who were murdered in their hundreds. INEC simply asked for billions of Naira, with which it procured vehicles, laptops, printers, ballot papers and ballot boxes - and then used the change to compensate youth corpers. Excuse me, but this is not the ideal way of getting things done, (with all due respect to Jega and INEC). 

Now, INEC did its best, but it cannot dissociate itself completely from the failures and calamities that occurred in certain operational aspects and in certain theatres of politiking. If INEC was a Japanese entity, resignations would be flying left, right and centre. If INEC was a British entity, a Commission of Enquiry would be established, and for the next 10 years, Theses and research papers would be churned on with titles such as ‘Elections 2011 – A security and operational assessment of INEC’. But what am I saying? This is Nigeria; where we prefer fire brigade approach to everything. We think research is only done at the tail end of a degree programme. We fail to see the relevance of facts and figures; and of data and its analysis. We refuse to discriminate between incompetence and capacity; we tend to accept mediocrity at the expense of expertise.

Just as Oga Jonathan cannot change Nigeria all by himself, Jega, with all his integrity and intelligence cannot run INEC alone. It ought to be clear now that the smoothness of both pre-election and post-election matters is not guaranteed by pumping billions into INEC which is spent on procurement only. It is a systemic issue where finance, material resources, people and established processes, are deployed efficiently and effectively. INEC was largely efficient but hardly effective. Efficiency is to do things right while effectiveness is to do the right things. Let me put it this way: a student who attends all his lectures is efficient, but the student who attends all his lectures on time, takes notes, listens, asks relevant questions and does his assignments is effective. Prof. Jega knows where I am coming from.

Let us now evolve from the thinking that elections are about printing ballot papers, buying vehicles and equipment and hiring clerical staff; led by resident electoral commissioners, (RECs) who in all likelihood; have no requisite skills or training in strategic planning, not to mention operations research. In other words, INEC  requires improved expertise and capacity to oil the machinery of smooth elections.

So whereas this is not Japan, we do not want resignations for many reasons. Firstly, because everyone agrees that Jega is a man of integrity, and in Nigeria of today, people like him are as rare as three-legged cocks. His appointment is probably the most inspiring in Nigeria, second only to the appointment of Samson Siasia, because well, football is a national food and he is the one man who can make our Super Eagles soar. Secondly resignations are unthinkable (at the Jega level) because compared to Professors Humphrey Nwosu and Maurice Iwu, Prof. Attahiru Jega is a genius, as elucidated by Dr. Wumi Akintide. Thirdly, resignations are not a solution because now is not the time to make wholesome changes. Now is the time to consolidate. What INEC requires is a framework for improvement in both capacity and modus operandi. The RECs may survive the impending hurricane, but the operational framework of INEC needs to be upgraded with requisite expertise of various kinds.

Now, this essay is not about the freeness or fairness of the 2011 elections, as I am not qualified to pontificate on that matter. But when it comes to putting X and Y to get Z, then I have a few things to say in this regard.

To begin with, I am not sure if there will ever be a forensic team of investigators whose job is to dissect the elections and tell INEC how it can do better in 2015; which is a shame. By investigation, I am not asking for one of those committees full of ex-this and former-that; whose terms of reference is to compile a list of dos and don'ts. I am asking for a team of experts who will go out there and conduct real case studies in every theatre of election, especially where things went wrong. We need to improve and aspire for total quality, because development cannot take place in stagnation. A good place to start is learning to value data in either quantitative or qualitative forms so that we can use it to develop Nigeria. This is the 21^st century. Today, we can take a stone which weights 0.2 kg; throw in the air with a speed of 5m/s; and we can calculate exactly how long it will take the stone to reach a certain height before it falls down due to the force of gravity (9.8m/s2). We can even calculate the impact that such a stone would have if it falls on water, on pavement or on someone’s head.

In fact, today a courier company can take your parcel from Calabar at 11:00am on Monday and assure you that it can deliver it by 04:00pm in California, USA, after 4 working days. They can do this because they have the length of route, mode of transport, cost of fuel, customs clearance and even NEPA blackout all figured out in their operational model. Yet INEC in Nigeria failed to deliver ballot boxes on time or plan for security in Kaduna of all places; a place which has a history of bloodshed. Haba, INEC!

As far as smooth elections are concerned, INEC must learn to standardise and have full control of its operations. INEC must learn to capture all the factors which will produce smooth and safe conduct of elections in Nigeria and represent them (i.e. model them) so that we can work with these variables to arrive at desired results. A model is a representation of a process or a system. It can be conceptual or mathematical or both. Most people recognise mathematical models as 'equations', which is okay, but is a layman’s language. As an example, let us consider a model for Smooth Elections, abbreviated as ‘Se’. In this model, if we want to capture all the variables or factors (both good and bad) that would affect the peaceful and orderly conduct of elections in Nigeria, then these variables could include the following:

Trustworthy Head of INEC (Twh)

Billions of Naira (Bn)

Strategic Planning (Sp)

Reliable Voter Register (Rv)

Logistics and Resources (Lr)

Risk Management (Rm)

Security Lapses (SL)

Ballot box snatching (Bs)

Thuggery and Intimidation (Tx)

By now, especially after the first and second postponements of elections, I expect that Prof. Jega has learnt that Smooth election is NOT equal to: Trustworthy Head of INEC + Billions of Naira. See Equation 1 below.

However, (especially after its trial and error method of doing things), INEC ought to realise that Smooth election is a function of: Trustworthy Head of INEC + Billions of Naira + Strategic Planning + Reliable Voter Register + Logistics and Resources + Risk Management; all divided by (or all depending on): Security Lapses + Ballot box snatching + Thuggery and Intimidation. See Equation 2 below.

In short what our simplified model is saying is that smooth elections (Se) in Nigeria is directly proportional to the sum of ‘good variables’ which are: Twh, Bn, Sp, Rv, Lr and Rm. These variables are the numerators (on top) of Equation 2; and as these variables increase, the value of Se in Equation 2 will also increase. A high value of Se, is always desirable if we want to maximise chances of having smooth elections.

But there are some ‘bad variables’ which will negate (i.e. reduce) this value of Se. That is why our model in Equation 2 is also saying that Se is inversely proportional to the sum of bad 'variables' which are: SL, Bs and Tx. These 'bad variables' are the denominators (at the bottom) of Equation 2. Inverse proportion here means that as these ‘bad variables’ increase, the value of Se will be lowered. Or as these 'bad variables' decrease, Se would increase.

So clearly, we would want to minimise (or reduce) the denominators or 'bad variables', so that we can have higher values of numerator; as doing this would result in a maximum value of Se. Or in plain English, if we minimise Security Lapses, Ballot Snatching and Thuggery and Intimidation, then we stand a chance of having smooth equations.

This is a very simplified version of the kind of model INEC is supposed to have, but they do not have, and are probably oblivious to this technique or process. What they achieved with trial and error and by following the 'usual' practice of conducting elections; and what they are now biting their fingers over; could have been easily computed by some mathematical gurus and operations research experts, in the confines of an air-conditioned office, while sipping zobo and watching Nollywood.

By now, plenty of you (readers) are probably wishing you paid more attention to Mr. Boniface, your O-Level mathematics teacher. Mathematics is indeed very sweet and beneficial IF you know its secrets and purpose. At this stage, the simplified model we have is non-dimensional. Later on, one can apply units to the variables. At the end, we would have something like a 'Smooth elections Index' or SEI; which would indicate how smooth elections would be in any state of Nigeria. As such troublesome states like Bauchi would have an SEI of say 0.3, while peaceful states like Kwara would have an SEI of 0.8. A perfect SEI could be equal to 1.0, which may not be practically possible. These are just examples please, so I hope the point is clear.

For all practical purposes, such a model (like Equation 2) can be applied in every location/region of Nigeria. Different states will have different input values for these variables. So for example, whereas in Delta State the emphasis may be on minimising the variable ‘Bs’ (i.e. Ballot snatching); in Kaduna and Bauchi, the most important variable to minimise would be SL (i.e. Security lapses). Similarly, in places like my village where you need a 7-wheel drive, and swallow one mudu of Panadol in advance before you start the journey; variables like Lr (Logistic resources) are clearly of prime importance. With modelling, this is how problems are solved in the real world; and why mistakes are hardly repeated in countries that are serious about development and progress. Our so called leaders travel to these places and marvel that everything works. Why won’t they work when everything is ‘under control’?

In fact, modelling is such a beautiful and flexible tool that if a new circumstance or factor such as Earthquake (God forbid) suddenly appears in Nigeria, then we simply call this variable ‘Ek’ and slot it into the existing model. This means INEC can plan for earthquakes during elections. Life goes on.

So for those of you who have kids, now is the time to make sure they take their maths seriously. It has real world applications. In fact, look around you: EVERYTHING is numbers.

Earlier, I mentioned qualitative data, which unlike quantitative data, cannot be expressed easily with numbers. Such qualitative data usually represent intangible phenomenon like human emotions (disappointment, hope, belief, etc); which are modelled using words and phrases. Afterwards the words and phrases can be interpreted using scales and in this regard, qualitative data are equally important in research and problem-solving. So, as far as INEC and elections are concerned, qualitative data must be captured all over Nigeria. For example, if INEC can carry out surveys on those areas where anger and vexations were rife, they can better understand, the need to educate people on how elections are won. Clearly, some people think because Mr. Wazobia had most votes in their backyard, then that makes him the winner; and so they get upset and resort to all sorts of regressive actions. Qualitative data is also obtained through interviews of stakeholders, focus group meetings, workshops, etc; all of which are valuable feedback mechanisms. INEC should have a team of sociologists whose job is to study people; their perceptions and expectations from elections and tell us how to deal with effects. For every action (e.g. win or lose election) there is an equal and opposite reaction (happiness or disappointment). Issac Newton proved this in the 18th Century.

Qualitatively then, it is not enough for INEC to ask people to register, regulate the campaigns of political parties and finally organise the voting process. INEC also has a duty to understand the behaviour of participants in order to prevent things from getting out of hand. INEC cannot conduct elections and then wash their hands off the fallouts. It must learn to manage expectations by projecting consequences and with adequate enlightenment. INEC has its work cut out and needs to start doing things scientifically. It needs to start making evidence-based decisions as far as utilisation of resources and social engineering are concerned. INEC needs to learn and adopt 'Systems Thinking' in its processes because preparing for, elections, conducting elections, validating results and the fallouts are complex and inter-related undertakings. Operations Research, which by the way is also called Management Science, is the way to go about it.

Our president, I believe is ever ready to support INEC, and in Jega, the organisation has a person of intelligence cum integrity. Now can we join the rest of the world in the 21st Century and move away from the analogue ways of getting things done? 

(To be continued).

Nigeria’s and its Energy Cry-Seas

Ha, NIGERIA!

We Nigerians tend to be unique in everything we manage to lay our hands on, be it good or bad. Even in our misfortunes and misadventures, we are quite exceptional. Mathematically, the best way to describe Nigeria now is Yakubu Aiyegbeni, the footballer. The equation is given as follows: If {(Huge) + (Strong) x (Popular) + (Wealthy) + (Talented + Nonchalance)} ÷ {(WorldCup) x (CrucialMatch) + (AverageOpponent) + (SimplePass) x (EmptyNetSquared)} = (MissedGoal) x (KnockOut) + (Y); then find Y.

And if you still don't know why (Y) because the above formula is too complex for you to understand our country; then simply calculate the SquareRoot of (NuhuRibadu ÷ AmosAdamu). Hopefully the denominator is not large enough to nullify the numerator. Meanwhile, I digress, because this essay is not exactly about football so bear with me. I love analogies.

Trust me, he did NOT score!

It is like for every forward step we take, we somehow succeed in finding ourselves two steps backwards. I mean, take power (the electric type) for instance. We have been crying seas of tears for so long, as a result of our energy crisis, the whole effort is becoming laughable. The amount of money we have sunk into our power sector over the last 10 years, is probably enough to electrify the entire West Africa, with enough Watts to spare for the Islands of Fernando Po and Principe. We are seemingly getting further and further from our goal because the more money that is spent, the lesser hours of electricity that we see. Just one blinking hour of electricity supply sees many of us scrambling to charge our mobile phones, barb our hairs, iron our clothes, watch TV, check our emails and browse the internet (in some cases, all at the same time).

So when I read from Guardian Newspapers (online edition, Monday 10th January 2011) that Nigeria’s electricity tariff would fall by 65% come April 2011, I almost jumped out of my skin in ecstasy. According to the news report, a spokesperson of the Presidential Task Force on Power (PTFP) stated from the N80 (eighty Naira) per Kilowatt hour (kWh) which many of us blow on generator fuel, fire wood and candle, the cost of electric power for the average Nigerian will soon plummet down to somewhere between 21 to 23 Naira per kWh. And this cheaper electric power will not come from generator or candle, eh-ehn. It will come from PHCN, remember them? Power HOLDING Company of Nigeria? The news sounded so good, that I ignored the breakfast in front of me and kept reading. But as I read further, I was comprehensively disappointed (or Yakubu-ed) and lost my appetite after the fourth paragraph or so.

At this stage, it should not surprise any of you readers to learn that three days later, precisely on the 13th of January through the same Guardian Newspaper, the Nigerian Electricity Regulation Commission (NERC) denied any such moves to lower electricity tariff. According to the spokesperson, only NERC has been vested with the power to lower tariffs based on the Electricity Power Sector Reform (EPSR) Act of 2005. This time around, I was losing my temper. It is becoming clear that it is not only corruption that stands in our way of progress. Lack of coordination among government agencies and egotistic ambitions bordering on intra-governmental politics and maybe incompetence, are also obstacles. But let us assume that the PTFP statement is true and that tariffs would be lowered this year. Is this enough?

Ordinarily, a reduction in tariff on anything (be it electricity, water, rent, fuel, police 'tax', or wife-allowance) should be worthy of celebration, and in this case there is certainly cause for some joy. But please, let us not be over joyous. I say this because I am convinced that overall, Nigeria is approaching its energy crisis (or cry-seas) in the not-very-proper way. True, there is a ‘concerted’ effort to revive and upgrade our power generation stations, including dams, natural gas and coal stations. There is also a lot of investment being made or being sought in terms of independent power production, distribution and marketing of yet-to-be-seen-electricity; which is also good as well. But overall, there is a fundamental flaw in the entire effort of providing Nigerians with steady and reliable energy. Let me expatiate more using a small village analogy.

THE VILLAGE STREAM: (An analogy)

First of all, it is evident that electricity consumption in Nigeria, like in other countries, goes primarily into buildings (houses, offices, factories, etc) and related infrastructure (street lights, telecoms, etc). And the most essential purposes of electricity in such buildings, is to provide lighting and power. For those who may not understand the difference in real technical terms, LIGHTING in this case refers to the artificial illumination that comes from bulbs; while POWER refers to the energy that goes into sockets, necessary for devices like computers and fridges, to work.

The village stream: an analogy on energy conservation

Now, imagine that Nigeria’s source of electricity (dams, coal, gas) is a stream in your village and that the buildings which require this electricity are a storage tank in front of your grandfather’s hut. The distribution system (national grid) can now be represented by village women with buckets on their head, who have to make the long trek to the stream in order to fetch water for their daily chores. If these women are to fill the storage tanks, maybe a few trips every 2 to 3 days should be enough. However, if the storage tank is leaking, then our women folks will have to make more trips to the stream than necessary, every day. As a result they would be wasting precious time and effort which would have been better utilised doing worthy things like frying delicacies, for example. For these women to be efficient in their household chores, therefore, they need to optimise their effort by minimising the time spent running between stream and storage tank. Not so?

Now, what is happening with our energy sector and policy as it stands today, is that our houses are leaking energy so much, that our Megawatt (MW) requirements is actually confusing because it is being under/over estimated (see how confusing it is?). The village women in our analogy, ought to know exactly many bucket-trips to make to the stream, after all there must be time left for cooking, gossiping, washing, frying delicacies...etc. Obasanjo targeted 10,000 MW and failed, some would say woefully and not surprisingly. Today it is 35,000 MW that we need, according to the Vision 2020 people. Meanwhile, a Professor (Ibidapo-Obe) who happens to be president of the Nigerian Academy of Science computed a figure of 150,000 MW (see Daily Trust of August 11, 2010).

So, back to football: it is like (a) we are heading for a competition, but cannot even decide whether it is Under 17 or under 21 tournament (i.e. lower tariff or no lower tariff), which is not surprising, given our age-cheating histrionics. We manage somehow to (b) reach the quarter finals of the tournament, and were awarded a last-minute penalty kick because one of our Yakubus dived (i.e. corruption); (c) nobody among the players seems to know where the goal post is, (i.e. lack of capacity) and some people are (d) already running to shoot the ball into the net, (i.e. bad leadership) so unsurprisingly, (e) we don’t score (i.e. natural outcome). We Yakubu-ed the opportunity and we actually have the effrontery to bite our nails and wonder why. How much energy does Nigeria truly need?

Now let us look at it this way: according to Andris Piebalgs, the EU Energy Commissioner: ‘Security of energy supply really starts with energy efficiency.” What this means is that for your energy security to be assured, you need to be efficient in how you actually utilise energy at the downstream end. And this starts with optimising the amount of energy that you actually NEED to make things work. To succeed in this, it does not matter how much energy you CAN produce (i.e. the potential) the most critical factor is 'optimisation of demand'. You see, without accurate quantification or estimation of demand, any supply will be unreliable and possibly wasteful. If you did not take (or pass) economics as a subject in your ‘O’ Levels, kindly ask your neighbourhood ‘akara seller’ for elaboration on supply and demand.

Back to our village analogy: This means that to have sufficient water in the tank, our women folk would mentally calculate how much water they need for cooking, drinking, bathing the kids, and washing the pots after those delicacies have been eaten. And from this mental data, the women will usually guess how many litres (okay, fine, they are village women so - how many buckets) of water they need to fetch per trip. Based on the size of buckets and the relative distance to the stream, they will also know how many trips are necessary per week. When this information is available to them, they can plan their time and channel effort into other activities (frying delicacies...etc). So, as a result of this scientifically-proven-trial-and-error method of village water reticulation, if there is any unexplainable depreciation in the water level in the tank, the women would notice.

So, one day, on their way to the stream Mama Chioma would say something like: “Come o, Iya Kemi, isn’t that storage tank of yours getting empty too quickly nowadays?” Iya Kemi will take a bite at her kolanut, shut one eyelid, and then nod in agreement. They will suspect that someone is stealing their water and they would investigate the ‘theft’. As is the way of our people, maybe co-wives and jealous neighbours would be blamed initially. But eventually, they would see the hole in the storage tank and they would fix it. Now, they won’t need to make extra trips to the stream anymore, and everyone will live happily ever after. Village life is sweet and simple.

It may be village life analogy, but this is how electric power (its generation, distribution and utilisation) actually works in a sustainable world, minus Nigeria. You start from the bottom and go up. From current and projected demand, you compute supply. Not the other way round. After all, will Iya Kemi peel and pound 47 tubers of yam before she estimates how many hungry mouths are actually in the house?

You can now understand why my annoyance about the news on electricity tariffs.

NIGERIA’S Puff-Puff Energy Policy

So, after reading the contradicting Guardian news stories of the 10th and 13th, it was clear to me, that we are still approaching energy matters with faulty logic. It is not that lower tariffs are undesirable. In fact they are long overdue; and we ought to be compensated for paying extra-high tariffs, when the money would have been better spent on kerosene and candles all these years. Raise your hand if you agree. Nevertheless, based on energy demand and conservation principles, it is essential that our experts take one hard, critical look at the current approach with a view to making requisite alterations. They need to revisit the basics of sustainable demand before we can target supply. We should not just announce that we are aiming for thousands of Megawatts because it sounds large enough to make Nigerians happy. How much do we need exactly and crucially, how do we compute this demand. Where do we start from? Let me give some hints using town houses (let us ignore offices and factories for sake of simplicity).

Our last census exercise also included the ‘counting’ of houses. Thus, no matter how contentious the population figures maybe, we should now have a rough idea of how many houses we have in a typical city or town in Nigeria. Within this information, we can now (following our village analogy) also extract specific data about number of bungalows and high rise buildings in these towns and cities. From this, we can estimate, roughly, the number of rooms in each house. From which we can then analyse the lighting and power requirements (the Wattage) for a typical home. When we also apply this concept to factories and offices, we should know exactly how many Megawatts we need to aim for. See how easy it is to apply village science to national issues? Let me elaborate more.

We also know that most homes in Nigeria use incandescent bulbs. For those who don’t know what this means, incandescent bulbs are the yellow bulbs that are used to warm the puff-puff, meat pie and stick-meat in your local super market. The fact that these bulbs are used to keep snacks warm, should ring a bell: They emit heat. And this heat is POORLY converted to light. They are called ‘incandescent’ because the word means ‘something that gives light because it is heated’. Only people who sell puff-puff would require the unnecessary heat from such incandescent bulbs. My house is not a puff-puff bakery and I am sure yours isn’t either. Note: as ‘incandescent bulb’ is TOO long for me to keep typing on my keyboard, henceforth, I will refer to it as ‘puff-puff bulb’. I hope you see the connection and you don’t mind?

Incandescent bulb (left) vs. compact fluorescent bulb or CFL (right)



So, due to their design which requires a lot of heat, the average puff-puff bulb needs 60Watts of electricity to operate. On the other hand, if you can get hold of one the new generation compact fluorescent (or CFL) bulbs - i.e. the ones that are twisted or come in zig-zags; you would find that they use as low as 15 to 20 Watts only.

The news gets even better. While a puff-puff bulb actually wastes about 90 percent of the input energy in the form of heat (remember: heat is only good for puff-puff sellers) - in terms of actual brightness (measured in lumens) a puff-puff bulb only gives 15 lumens of light per Watt. A CFL bulb on the other hand is not only 4 to 6 times more energy efficient, (i.e. lesser excess heat); but in terms of brightness, it also produces between 50 and 100 lumens of light per Watt. Or as you can see from Table 1 below, for the same amount of illumination (lumen) CFL bulbs need roughly one-quarter of the Wattage used by puff-puff bulbs. While the initial cost of a CFL bulb may be higher (could be cheaper if we stop consuming and start producing in Nigeria) this first cost is not a disadvantage because the bulb usually lasts 10 to 20 times longer than a puff-puff bulb anyway. In a nutshell, the CFL bulb is brighter, cheaper and better.

Looks like we have been short-changing ourselves, haven’t we?

Although the CFL bulb may not tolerate fluctuating currents as much as the puff-puff bulb, yet, it does not require changing of starters or chokes like the fluorescent tubes of old. Essentially, we now understand that the yellow 60-watt puff-puff bulb is outmatched, outperformed and outpriced by a 20-watt CFL bulb. Do you now also understand why rechargeable lamps are ALWAYS in fluorescent white and NEVER in yellow? Oyibo (and Chinese) get sense! With the information provided so far, I hope you appreciate that we, the long-suffering and infinitely patient Nigerians, don’t need to wait for all those independent power plants to take off. You as a person do not have to wait for any lower tariffs before you start acting right. Even if you don’t care about energy conservation, what about your pocket? But you can start saving both energy and money today. Every Watt you save is a Watt your fellow citizen could use.

Boycott the puff-puff Bulb TODAY!

A first step is to boycott or ban puff-puff bulbs altogether. Normally, our government should handle this boycott or ban officially. But we can neither wait not trust that the boycott/banning policy will come anytime soon, or that it shall be implemented by those people grey uniform at our ports. Also, how do we know that the puff-puff bulb industry will/has not lobbied some people in government who would want to protect it from being banned - even if we, the people are frying in its heat? Therefore, dear readers, I urge each and every one of you to take the initiative and ban the puff-puff bulb from your house today. Ban it from your office, your stall, your business centre, your workshop, your factory, your school and your mai-guard room. If it is possible, you can also ban it from your torchlight and car headlights as well. Personal choice is not illegal in Nigeria.

When the suppliers and distributors see a dwindling market for puff-puff bulbs, no one will tell them what to stock in their shops. Also, this measure will help to reduce the overall expenditure (the billions of dollars) being budgeted, half-spent, or partially stolen from power projects. It will work because it will reduce the electricity demand for lighting, which means supply will be lower and cheaper, and we should have enough of it, equitably shared by all.

And guess what? Puff-puff bulbs (have been banned and) are NOT being produced anymore and have being phased out in countries like Brazil and Venezuela since 2005. Malaysia, Australia, The European Union, India and even Cuba (with all its sanctions) have all announced bans on importation and utilisation of puff-puff bulbs; or at the very least, a phase-out strategy in the next few years. The UK will implement its total phase out of puff-puff bulbs this year (2011). Meanwhile, we in Nigeria are still focusing on tariffs which would be even much lower IF we decide to phase out puff-puff bulbs from our lives.

ESTIMATED SAVINGS: (A Typical Home Lighting Assessment)

If you are still not convinced, lets us look at an example of the comprehensive savings you can make from a typical 3-bedroom house that decides to switch from puff-puff bulbs to CFL bulbs. Below is Table 2 which shows a comparative analysis of the number of bulbs you would need using either the puff-puff or CFL approach; the total wattage that will be consumed by the home; and how much you would spend in total for each approach. Numbers don’t lie.

The above table is just a simple illustration. The cost in kilowatt-hour (kWh) from CFL bulbs (2,729 kWh) is roughly 3 times lower than that of puff-puff bulbs (8187 kWh). Remember also that because CFL bulbs are much brighter, the actual quantity you would need per room will be reduced, but this is not done here. I assumed that you have equal number, so that you can better appreciate the difference. Therefore, in reality you could be saving much more, even after you factor in the initial cost of CFL bulbs. Another important factor is, it does not matter whether your power comes from PHCN or from a generator: CFL bulbs would definitely save energy and money.

CONCLUSION

It is a fact that we actually have a research centre for energy efficiency and conservation in one of our universities (Unilag). In all fairness to the colleagues working tirelessly over there, I don’t know what they are doing regarding this particular matter. But again, why must we wait for a white paper research or policy that may never be implemented, when YOU can make your OWN policy and implement it even TODAY?

We are living in homes lighted by puff-puff technology. These homes are therefore (1) wasting energy and (2) wasting money. The puff-puff bulbs are also (3) generating undesirable internal heat, which you are not even able to (4) cool with that abandoned AC of yours because (5) we don’t have steady power. I told you, Nigeria is unique in every way - good and bad.

So, go ahead and ban the puff-puff bulb from your life today. If I was in Nigeria and I had the means, I would make T-Shirts, Faze caps, car stickers, handbills, posters and billboards for mass distribution against puff-puff bulbs; and against puff-puff energy policy. I would hire 2Face and P-Square to sing anti-puff-puff bulb songs for our FM stations. I will even convert the songs to mobile MP3 ringtones and share it, just to keep the message spreading. There are many simple but powerful things each and every one of us can do to help Nigeria, so stop waiting for President Jonathan to solve all your problems in life. Haba!

Still, I sincerely hope those in executive arms of government (including States) will get some ideas from this essay and do something on behalf of the common man. I expect some action governors to take the lead in this battle. I hope state governors (like Fashola), are listening and will leave good legacies in this particular regard. If you didn’t hear your name and you are a governor, kindly sit up and you will be noticed. I expect those in legislative arm of government to come up with Bills that will officially declare the puff-puff bulb, a persona non grata in every State of Nigeria. No government office or building should be caught using these bulbs, at all. Let each of us carry a placard in our hearts that denounces puff-puff bulbs. In fact, as the ‘so-called’ most religious country in the world, let our Christian brethrens declare a Pontifical and Ecclesial decree against these bulbs, while the Muslims declare a Fatwa on it as well! 

But before ‘The Puff-Puff Bill’ eventually comes out and is used for badminton exercise between Aso Rock and National Assembly, I hope that the relevant NGOs will commence urgent mass mobilisation for the ‘de-puffication’ of our homes and our offices. I believe NGOs can play a crucial role in the war against these bulbs. So the NGOs should please help take this message to the grassroots of Nigeria; from slopes of Olumo Rock to the peaks of Obudu Ranch; from the shores of Lake Chad to the gravels of Lake Kainji. If every Nigerian can lower the cost of lighting his home by up to 75%, (even without lower tariff) isn’t that a worthy cause to be pursued?

Members of the organised private sector, that are serious about corporate social responsibility programmes can help sponsor the posters, the stickers and the radio jingles mentioned earlier. Where are the GLOs, the MTNs, the Etisalats and the Zains/Bhartis-or whatever? Step up and be counted: the GTBs, the First Banks, the Zenith Banks and the UBAs. If the National Orientation Agency (NOA) is looking for something worth their while, well, how about sponsoring some TV adverts and debates about energy efficiency in Nigeria? Haba, must Oga President do everything?

What many of us fail to appreciate is that development actually starts in the mind. In essence, things like democracy and physical infrastructure are simply outward manifestations of enlightened spirits. So, while we seek comprehensive development in Nigeria, we should also realise that there is so much that we can all do as individuals, to help bring about positive change in our country. Positive change is indeed something many of us have not seen in a very long time. But hopefully, we can see that simple personal choices about lighting our homes can have profound positive impact on the economy of entire country. Let each and every one of us begin to do something about making Nigeria a better place than we met it. Maybe I (or someone) can even start a web-campaign: banpuffpuffbulbs.com, or something like that. Now as for you, the reader, what will you do?

I thank you for reading anyway. Now spread the word about puff-puff bulbs and stop using them, please!

The Power of 'I'

Growing up, I’d always observed that the ability of a class captain to write names of all noise makers in his class depended on his capacity to withstand bullying and intimidation. A successful class captain was he who either by virtue of the biceps on his arms or the fearless spirit in his heart; stood up to the rest of his classmates, (and called for order) when things got out of hand. This is leadership at its simplest, but at that time, I knew it not. Today, it is apparent that it takes balls of steel for a leader to act right especially in the kind of sham democracy being practiced in many parts of Nigeria. It takes a strong will and an unwavering mind to realise that you are indeed a leader, and to declare to yourself time and time again: ‘I shall lead well’.

Unfortunately, like the over-whelming peer pressure in our teenage years, many a leader in Nigeria is incapable of resisting the urge to pinch public funds because, well, it is the only game in town. Besides, a non-conformist is always out of place and prone to the overbearing influence of the status quo. Truth is, when you are for example, a legislator in the national or state assembly and your colleagues are being distributed ghana-must-go bags, you would raise plenty of eyebrows by your mere ‘absence’ on such occasions. You would attract frowns and invite the whispers of others if you declined a bag. In such cases, as with the murderous senators who stabbed Julius Caesar, it is crucial that every conspirator’s blade has pierced the bosom of public funds and is dripping with the blood of corruption.

In other words, many legislators would find themselves maligned if they are not aligned with the agents of kleptocracy. So, such people tend to ‘go with the flow’ at the cost of betraying the expectations of their various constituencies – and their personal principles, if they had any. When it comes to state governments, many governors do not have the guts to take the bull by the horns, by jettisoning the chains of nepotism and god-fatherism that restricts and constricts their better judgement. Maybe it is also because such governors are frozen by the stupor of fear, which comes from being hounded by the ghosts of stolen votes.

Governors need to fight neoptism and god-fatherism

At the peaks of Aso Rock, many of our presidents have historically been unable to actualise ten, three or even one-point agenda because they are either locked in the jaws of a selfish cabal, or they are too weak to ‘write the names of noise-makers’ so to say. Many presidents have been bitten and poisoned by the fangs of self-serving advisors and so they foam at the mouth to the applause of sycophants, while displaying the epileptic jerks of the narcist. They are overwhelmed by the paranoia of impeachment; they salivate from the long-throat of second/third terms and are paralysed by indifference towards the gains of a truly federated Nigeria. It is seemingly easier for our presidents therefore, to dust the manuals on despotism left behind by Abacha, than to write a new chapter on national progress. That is why we are yet to see a president who is ruthlessly aiming to sanitise even one aspect of our multi-faceted maladies, with a combination of deep personal conviction and deft political manoeuvres. We are yet to see a president who is impatiently tapping the soles of his feet at the steps of our national assembly; waiting for people-friendly Bills to be passed, and implemented.

In a nutshell, what I am implying is that many of our leaders simply lack courage. But were I to title this essay ‘Cowardice of Nigerian Leaders’, my passport whose eagle does not belong to the American species, would be seized even before my plane descends into Nigeria. So I thread softly, after all, I am not Okey Ndibe and solidarity statements would not be issued by global voices, if I got detained in an airport.

So, by all means let us be allowed to criticise our leaders and leadership, but we should do so constructively and not for the sake of criticism itself. Better yet, instead of just criticising, why don’t we (the followers) also ‘suggest ways forward’ or ‘proffer solutions’ and ‘contribute ideas’? Has it occurred to you that many of our leaders may simply be suffering from mediocrity complex? It is so easy to point fingers at ‘that man’ in Aso Rock or Government House for every single national mishap. As bad as leadership has been in Nigeria over the years, many of us followers can be found wanting as well, in simple everyday matters. The president does not have to be an angel before you as a person realise that corruption is bad. Your effort to live a life free of crime and sin should not be dependent on the holiness of your local pastor or imam. On a scale of 1 to 10, (with 10 being excellent) methinks that many of us will score less than 3 in personal effort to change Nigeria. It is always someone else’s fault that Nigeria is at best stagnant, or at worst backwards.

About 200 years of independence and democracy separates us from the United States, and if you add technological gaps, we are light years behind them; but nevertheless, let us make an elementary comparison. When America was saddled with the imbecilic regime of George Bush Jnr., did their citizens equally behave stupidly? Were ordinary Americans not coming out to demonstrate en masse against the deception which probably increased America’s insecurity and cost the lives of soldiers in their thousands? Did the American people just sit back, fold their arms and blame leadership all the time, like we do in Nigeria? When they had the chance, did they not vote for a black man for the first time in their history, in the midst of a financial crisis- all in the expectation of hope and change? You see, bringing about an internal regime change was something many of them (as individual Americans) believed that they could, and eventually, they did. It started with individual belief and manifested as individual votes; and the rest is history as they say. Obama is president.

In stark contrast, many of us Nigerians refuse to aim the flashlight of progress inward by questioning our very existence and essence as citizens of our country. Many do not understand or care about basic community or civic responsibilities. When 33 miners got stuck in a tunnel for over 2 months in Chile last year, the leadership skills of Luis Urzua, their supervisor was critical to their escape from the very belly of death itself. But for the sake of collective survival, each and every one of the miners also had to play his assigned role, and tomorrow, one of these ordinary miners would indeed become a shift supervisor. His experience of being a good follower of Luis Urzua is the single most important asset he will take with him as a supervisor, every time he goes into a mine shaft. While our collective patience as Nigerians is infinitely elastic, on substance, many of us don’t measure up to the very ideals which we expect our leaders to live by. And because tomorrow, one of us will receive a baton of leadership somewhere in Nigeria, herein lies the real obstacle for us to break free, from the cyclic yoke of ineptitude which chokes us.

One day, you shall lead

Despite his perceived personal shortcomings, I was touched by the gesture of humility exhibited by President Jonathan, who took part in a book reading session for school children. This he did in the company of Africa’s first Nobel Laureate in Literature, Prof. Wole Soyinka on the 20th of December, 2010. Now, do you have any idea what this ‘presidential reading’ in the company of a literary icon would mean to the 400 kids that were present? It is the equivalent of me and my childhood friends in primary three, listening to passages of our textbook being read by President Shagari in the early 80s, in the company of Chinua Achebe or Prof. Chike Obi. Well, Shagari was neither inspired nor advised to do so, but if he had, one of us may have been on the way to a Nobel Prize in Literature, Physics or something like that by now. The inspiration would have been life-changing and long-lasting. Our heads would ‘swell’ for months and we’d be motivated by an insatiable hunger to read, and read, and then read some more. The mere presence of a Prof. Chike Obi would not only help dilute our fear of arithmetic, it could have also triggered a mathematical genius among us.

As quoted by 234Next.com, President Jonathan while summarising the morals of Achebe’s ‘Chike and the River’ told the children: ‘you don’t have to go the South East to know about the place, you can read about it’. The president then led a recitation of passages from the book, to the awe of attentive children who followed him word by word, line by line. You see, leadership begins with self-realisation and simple acts that would inspire others.

Some might not see the big deal in what President Jonathan did. But in his reaction to the President's reading campaign, Odia Ofeimun stated rightly that “this is the first time a national leader at the apex of decision making would be identifying with the campaign for the development of a reading culture, without minding the cynicism of those who believe the situation is too far gone to be remedied.” Truer words were never spoken. The culture of reading has been dying in Nigeria because it has been stabbed by the nonchalance of many parents and teachers alike. So kudos for this presidential initiative to ‘Bring Back The Book’.

Can your kids read very well?

In essence, we should never underestimate the power of ‘I’. And I am talking about the ‘I’ in initiative, the ‘I’ in inspiration, the ‘I’ in integrity and the ‘I’ in ingenuity. I am referring to the very simple ‘I’ in ‘Yes, I can do it!’ I am also referring to the more complex ‘I’ in ‘I am the President of Nigeria, and today I am going to read to 400 school children’. You can fault him on how he reacts to bomb blasts, but the foresight of President Jonathan regarding the impact and import of reading on children, is worthy of commendation and emulation. If the President could read out to school children, then what about you the parent? When was the last time YOU sat your children down and read them a good book? When your kids pick up incorrect oral skills from the streets and call you ‘fada’ or ‘moda’; do you stick out your tongue and show them how to make the ‘th’ sound in ‘father’ or ‘mother’? Do you even care to notice how well they speak at all, or is it the concern of school teachers alone? Most parents of today fall short in this regard, and that is the God-honest truth if I ever spoke one.

We would rather sit back on the couch, switch channels on our remote controls and insult pictures of the legislators on AIT; blame every governor that shows his face on NTA and condemn the President when he appears on CNN. Yes, many of our leaders deserve to be told off, but not at the expense of individual responsibilities. Each and every one of us was, is or could be a leader some day, so leadership is not the exclusive reserve of aliens from planet Mars. How prepared we are for the big stage of tomorrow, is directly proportional to how well we play small leadership roles today whether as school prefects, as parents, or as matrons in hospital wards.

So, many of us find it easier to ‘go with the flow’ and blame leaders and leadership for all our problems in life: from the bites of a mosquito to the catarrh in our nose. But then, only helpless blades of grass and leaves in a river go with the flow. Strong people resist, and that is why the true hero is the soldier who charges in the opposite direction to his fleeing compatriots. In other words, even when a river is flowing fast and furiously with the turbulent currents of corruption, it requires a noble sense of individual heroism to grab the branch of integrity, and hang on as if your life depended on it. But at the rate we are going, we would find ourselves perpetually on the losing side of the blame game.

You may have to swim against the tide

It takes the power of ‘I’ for an incumbent to rise above the tendency to make an enemy of every critic and every political opponent. It takes the power of ‘I’ to agree that people will disagree with our goals, our visions and our political directions. It takes the power of ‘I’ to tolerate other religions and other ethnicities- to walk side by side and treat as equals, people who eat, talk and dress differently from yourself. It takes the power of ‘I’ for a law maker to resist the temptation to sell his/her conscience and the future of the unborn at the price of a ghana-must-go. But it is the same power of ‘I’ that is also required for the office manager to resist a brown envelope in order to push a contractor’s file. Without the power of 'I' the policeman is unable to ignore the folded palms and insist on searching a vehicle, no matter who is in it.

I have a strong personal conviction that although Nigeria has chronic leadership problems, yet it is not an ‘US’ versus ‘THEM’ thing. I always say that those who encourage, siddon-look or participate in either rigging of elections; in sharing of looted funds; in supporting despotism or in upholding the banners of tribalism; such people have no business asking for good roads, clean water or reliable health care. Good leadership is not automatic, and it does not occur by default. In fact, I make bold to state that it is a despicable felony and a sacrilegious crime, for any Nigerian to expect good leadership if his mind or his hands are soiled as a willing accessory to the murder of progress.

Such is the power of ‘I’ that many of us underestimate every single day. Nigeria is in dire need of individuals, who would be a hero to someone, to anyone: a hero to your wife or to your child; a hero to your colleagues or to your subordinates; a hero to your state or to your country. There are a few such heroes in Nigeria today, so we need many more. You don’t have to be called a ‘leader’ to realise that you can be the source of inspiration and direction to those around you. The power of ‘I’ is therefore about you pointing your forefinger backwards and telling yourself to act right.

Leadership starts with you

They say if you believe that you can, then it is possible that you can; but if you believe that you cannot, then you are damn right- you cannot! There is an old man that I know, who applied the slogan ‘yes you can’ in his everyday life, long before Obama ever dreamt of being president. This article is therefore dedicated to that man, my father: a self-taught man in many respects, a man wealthier in more ways than he ever realised, who taught me to believe that I could.

You are not a helpless blade of grass, so do not ‘go with the flow’. Look inside, and celebrate the power of ‘I’ that is wasting in you.